Aubagnevs
Le Puy Foot
COMPLETEDFrance · Ligue 3 · 10/17/2026, 12:45:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Le Puy Foot · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: Aubagne 0-0 Le Puy Foot, with an exact score probability of 21%.
Prediction record
Final result
Aubagne 0-1 Le Puy Foot
Original prediction
Le Puy Foot
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 3 October 2026 at 00:02 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 3.16 | 28.6% | 22.7% | -5.9 pts |
| Draw | 3.21 | 28.2% | 29.9% | 1.7 pts |
| Away | 2.09 | 43.2% | 47.4% | 4.2 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.09 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
4.2 pts
Projected Score
Aubagne 0–0 Le Puy Foot
Exact score probability: 21%
Predicted outcome
Le Puy Foot
Probability
47.4%
Model confidence
47.4%
Le Puy Foot has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
AubagneLWLLD
GF 4 · GA 7 · avg 0.80/1.40
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
Le Puy FootWLWLD
GF 8 · GA 6 · avg 1.60/1.20
BTTS 4/5O2.5 3/5
AubagneLe Puy Foot
22.2Attack40.7
55.6Defence66.7
25.9Form48.1
37.0Power53.0
0.57xG1.05