Aubagnevs
Concarneau
COMPLETEDFrance · Ligue 3 · 9/12/2026, 12:45:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Draw · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: Aubagne 0-0 Concarneau, with an exact score probability of 19%.
Prediction record
Final result
Aubagne 1-2 Concarneau
Original prediction
Draw
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 29 August 2026 at 00:04 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 3.30 | 27.6% | 32.3% | 4.8 pts |
| Draw | 3.10 | 29.3% | 30.9% | 1.5 pts |
| Away | 2.11 | 43.1% | 36.8% | -6.3 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
1.5 pts
Projected Score
Aubagne 0–0 Concarneau
Exact score probability: 19%
Predicted outcome
Draw
Probability
30.9%
Model confidence
36.8%
Draw has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
AubagneDWLLL
GF 2 · GA 5 · avg 0.40/1.00
BTTS 0/5O2.5 1/5
ConcarneauDDWDL
GF 5 · GA 5 · avg 1.00/1.00
BTTS 2/5O2.5 1/5
AubagneConcarneau
13.3Attack33.3
66.7Defence66.7
26.7Form40.0
37.4Power48.5
0.85xG0.87