Aubagnevs
Bourg-en-bresse 01
COMPLETEDFrance · Ligue 3 · 8/29/2026, 12:45:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Aubagne · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 0-0 (11%), 1-0 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Aubagne 2-0 Bourg-en-bresse 01
Original prediction
Aubagne
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 26 August 2026 at 00:55 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.28 | 39.8% | 37.4% | -2.4 pts |
| Draw | 3.02 | 30.0% | 28.8% | -1.2 pts |
| Away | 3.00 | 30.2% | 33.8% | 3.6 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.28 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-2.4 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.0–011%
- 3.1–010%
Predicted outcome
Aubagne
Probability
37.4%
Model confidence
37.4%
Aubagne has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
AubagneLLLDL
GF 3 · GA 9 · avg 0.60/1.80
BTTS 2/5O2.5 2/5
Bourg-en-bresse 01LLWLD
GF 4 · GA 8 · avg 0.80/1.60
BTTS 2/5O2.5 2/5
AubagneBourg-en-bresse 01
0.0Attack33.3
44.4Defence33.3
0.0Form33.3
19.2Power37.2
1.21xG1.17