Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Bastia · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 1-1
Aubagne are 1W-1D-3L in their last 5 (LWDLL), averaging 1.60 scored and 2.00 conceded, while Bastia are 2W-1D-2L in their last 5 (LLWDW), averaging 1.40 scored and 1.60 conceded. Both teams scored in 7 of those 10 games and 5 passed 2.5 goals, and Bastia hold a 42.0-point power-rating edge (23.7 v 65.7). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 43.0% in the Friendlies Clubs, while Bastia holds the strongest overall chance at 43% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 64% BTTS chance and 64% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Bastia
Probability
43.0%
Model confidence
43.0%
Bastia has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 8 · GA 10 · avg 1.60/2.00
GF 7 · GA 8 · avg 1.40/1.60