Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Ordabasy · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: Atyrau 0-1 Ordabasy, with an exact score probability of 23%.
Prediction record
Final result
Atyrau 0-3 Ordabasy
Original prediction
Ordabasy
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 4 September 2026 at 00:01 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 6.24 | 14.5% | 11.2% | -3.3 pts |
| Draw | 3.97 | 22.8% | 24.8% | 2.1 pts |
| Away | 1.44 | 62.8% | 64.0% | 1.3 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.44 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
1.3 pts
Projected Score
Atyrau 0–1 Ordabasy
Exact score probability: 23%
Predicted outcome
Ordabasy
Probability
64.0%
Model confidence
64.0%
Ordabasy has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
AtyrauLWLLD
GF 4 · GA 7 · avg 0.80/1.40
BTTS 2/5O2.5 1/5
OrdabasyWLWWW
GF 10 · GA 4 · avg 2.00/0.80
BTTS 3/5O2.5 4/5
AtyrauOrdabasy
25.0Attack64.0
65.3Defence76.0
31.9Form77.3
43.4Power73.4
0.37xG1.33