Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Draw · BTTS No · Under 2.5 · 0-0
Atyrau are 0W-2D-3L in their last 5 (DDLLL), averaging 0.80 scored and 1.60 conceded, while Okzhetpes are 2W-0D-3L in their last 5 (LWLWL), averaging 1.80 scored and 1.60 conceded. Both teams scored in 8 of those 10 games and 6 passed 2.5 goals, and Okzhetpes hold an 8.2-point power-rating edge (44.8 v 53.0). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 0-0 the most likely exact scoreline at 22.1% in the Premier League, while a draw holds the strongest overall chance at 38% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 31% BTTS chance and 21% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Draw
Probability
38.2%
Model confidence
22.1%
Draw has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 4 · GA 8 · avg 0.80/1.60
GF 9 · GA 8 · avg 1.80/1.60