Premier LeaguePremier League
Saturday, 18 July 2026Last updated 14:59
Atyrau

Atyrau

Home
L
13
Full time
Kairat Almaty

Kairat Almaty

Away
WW
Turkestan Arena
GoalVio prediction
Too close to call
No clear favourite

The model sees this as an open match — all three outcomes are within a tight range.

Kairat Almaty36%
Draw35%
Atyrau29%
Most likely exact score0-1
Win probability
Atyrau
29%
Draw
35%
Kairat Almaty
36%
Predicted winner is based on the highest win probability.
Intelligence snapshot
Attack
Atyrau
34
Kairat Almaty
73
Defence
Atyrau
27
Kairat Almaty
82
Momentum
Atyrau
0
Kairat Almaty
100
Danger (xG)
Atyrau
0.90
Kairat Almaty
1.80
Both teams to score
No
Over 2.5 goals
No
xG for (Atyrau)
0.90
avg per match
xG for (Kairat Almaty)
1.80
avg per match
xG against (Atyrau)
1.80
avg per match
xG against (Kairat Almaty)
0.45
avg per match

Momentum trend

last 5 matches
AtyrauAtyrau
LL
Kairat AlmatyKairat Almaty
WWW

Probability breakdown

39% confidence
Atyrau29%
Draw35%
Kairat Almaty36%

Kairat Almaty leads with 36% — the model's highest-probability outcome for this fixture.

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Analysis

Match insights

Atyrau head into this in Premier League fixture at Turkestan Arena in mixed form (L), while Kairat Almaty arrive in decent form (WW). Atyrau have a 0% win rate across their last 1 matches, compared to 100% for Kairat Almaty over 2 games.

Tactically, Kairat Almaty hold the edge. Their strong attack (73/100) is pitted against a vulnerable Atyrau defence (27/100), while Atyrau's attack faces a watertight Kairat Almaty backline. The model flags this as a potential away-team performance.

Atyrau have struggled at home recently, failing to win any of their last 1 home games. They average 1.0 goals scored and 2.0 conceded per home match. Kairat Almaty have been excellent on the road, winning all 2 of their recent away fixtures and averaging 2.5 goals scored and 0.5 conceded per away game.

There is no head-to-head data between Atyrau and Kairat Almaty in the engine.

The GoalVio engine projects Kairat Almaty to win with 39% confidence. and a most likely scoreline of 0-1. Win probabilities: Atyrau 2919%, Draw 3500%, Kairat Almaty 3581%. BTTS: No, Over 2.5: No.

Recent form

Atyrau

Atyrau

L
vs Kaspiy
5 Jul 2026
12
L
@ Kaspiy
27 Jun 2026
02
Kairat Almaty

Kairat Almaty

W
@ Sutjeska
15 Jul 2026
20
W
vs Sutjeska
8 Jul 2026
21
W
@ Okzhetpes
27 Jun 2026
31

Frequently asked questions

Who will win Atyrau vs Kairat Almaty?

GoalVio's model predicts Kairat Almaty to win with 39% confidence.

What is the predicted score for Atyrau vs Kairat Almaty?

The most likely scoreline according to GoalVio's Skellam-DC model is 0-1.

Will both teams score in Atyrau vs Kairat Almaty?

GoalVio's model predicts BTTS: No — at least one team is expected to keep a clean sheet.

Will there be over 2.5 goals in Atyrau vs Kairat Almaty?

GoalVio's model predicts Over 2.5 Goals: No — fewer than 3 goals are expected.

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About this prediction
GoalVio Prediction Engine v5 — updated dailyPowered by Poisson, xG and momentum modelsAccuracy last 30 days: 54%Last model update:
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Responsible gambling: Predictions are generated by a statistical model for informational purposes only. Past accuracy does not guarantee future results. Learn more