Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Atyrau · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: Atyrau 0-0 Irtysh, with an exact score probability of 24%.
Prediction record
Final result
Atyrau 2-3 Irtysh
Original prediction
Atyrau
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 3 October 2026 at 12:40 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.29 | 39.4% | 38.9% | -0.5 pts |
| Draw | 3.17 | 28.4% | 31.9% | 3.5 pts |
| Away | 2.81 | 32.2% | 29.2% | -3.0 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-0.5 pts
Projected Score
Atyrau 0–0 Irtysh
Exact score probability: 24%
Predicted outcome
Atyrau
Probability
38.9%
Model confidence
38.9%
Atyrau has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
AtyrauDLWLL
GF 4 · GA 8 · avg 0.80/1.60
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
IrtyshLLLWW
GF 4 · GA 10 · avg 0.80/2.00
BTTS 2/5O2.5 3/5
AtyrauIrtysh
26.2Attack31.0
61.9Defence50.0
32.1Form31.0
42.7Power40.0
0.85xG0.64