Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
FC Astana · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: Atyrau 0-0 FC Astana, with an exact score probability of 22%.
Prediction record
Final result
Atyrau 2-3 FC Astana
Original prediction
FC Astana
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 26 August 2026 at 01:05 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 5.17 | 17.5% | 18.6% | 1.2 pts |
| Draw | 3.67 | 24.6% | 29.1% | 4.4 pts |
| Away | 1.56 | 57.9% | 52.3% | -5.6 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.56 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-5.6 pts
Projected Score
Atyrau 0–0 FC Astana
Exact score probability: 22%
Predicted outcome
FC Astana
Probability
52.3%
Model confidence
52.3%
FC Astana has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
AtyrauLDDLL
GF 3 · GA 8 · avg 0.60/1.60
BTTS 3/5O2.5 1/5
FC AstanaDWWWL
GF 10 · GA 7 · avg 2.00/1.40
BTTS 4/5O2.5 3/5
AtyrauFC Astana
23.8Attack54.0
66.7Defence65.1
31.7Form61.9
43.4Power61.2
0.53xG1.04