Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Draw · BTTS No · Under 2.5 · 0-0
24%
HighconfidenceAtyrau are 0W-1D-4L in their last 5 (DLLLL), averaging 0.60 scored and 1.80 conceded, while Aktobe are 3W-0D-2L in their last 5 (LWWLW), averaging 2.20 scored and 2.00 conceded. Both teams scored in 8 of those 10 games and 7 passed 2.5 goals, and aktobe hold a 9.3-point power-rating edge (44.8 v 54.1). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 0-0 the most likely result in the Premier League, favouring a draw with 24.2% confidence, a 28% BTTS chance and 18% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Draw
Probability
39.2%
Model confidence
24.2%
Draw has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
AtyrauDLLLL
GF 3 · GA 9 · avg 0.60/1.80
BTTS 3/5O2.5 2/5
AktobeLWWLW
GF 11 · GA 10 · avg 2.20/2.00
BTTS 5/5O2.5 5/5
AtyrauAktobe
25.0Attack47.6
68.3Defence60.3
33.3Form50.8
44.8Power54.1
0.62xG0.85