Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
PAOK · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 0-1 (9%), 1-2 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Atromitos 1-2 PAOK
Original prediction
PAOK
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 26 August 2026 at 01:06 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 4.56 | 20.5% | 28.4% | 8.0 pts |
| Draw | 3.74 | 25.0% | 27.2% | 2.3 pts |
| Away | 1.71 | 54.6% | 44.4% | -10.2 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.71 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-10.2 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.0–19%
- 3.1–29%
Predicted outcome
PAOK
Probability
44.4%
Model confidence
44.4%
PAOK has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
AtromitosLWWWL
GF 11 · GA 4 · avg 2.20/0.80
BTTS 2/5O2.5 3/5
PAOKLWDLL
GF 9 · GA 8 · avg 1.80/1.60
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
AtromitosPAOK
0.0Attack100.0
66.7Defence100.0
0.0Form100.0
23.7Power97.0
1.15xG1.53