Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Atmosfera · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 1-0 (12%), 0-0 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Atmosfera 3-0 Jonava
Original prediction
Atmosfera
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 7 October 2026 at 06:49 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.01 | 44.8% | 49.4% | 4.6 pts |
| Draw | 3.45 | 26.1% | 24.9% | -1.1 pts |
| Away | 3.09 | 29.1% | 25.6% | -3.5 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.01 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
4.6 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.1–012%
- 3.0–010%
Predicted outcome
Atmosfera
Probability
49.4%
Model confidence
49.4%
Atmosfera has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
AtmosferaWDDLW
GF 9 · GA 7 · avg 1.80/1.40
BTTS 4/5O2.5 3/5
JonavaWLLLD
GF 5 · GA 7 · avg 1.00/1.40
BTTS 1/5O2.5 2/5
AtmosferaJonava
51.3Attack38.3
55.1Defence56.8
43.6Form37.0
50.3Power45.4
1.46xG0.94