Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Atmosfera · BTTS No · Under 2.5 · 1-1
Atmosfera are 1W-1D-3L in their last 5 (LWDLL), averaging 1.40 scored and 1.80 conceded, while Garliava are 4W-0D-1L in their last 5 (LWWWW), averaging 2.40 scored and 0.80 conceded. Both teams scored in 5 of those 10 games and 8 passed 2.5 goals, and Atmosfera hold a 2.1-point power-rating edge (50.6 v 48.5). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 14.7% in the 1 Lyga, while Atmosfera holds the strongest overall chance at 40% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 43% BTTS chance and 35% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Atmosfera
Probability
39.8%
Model confidence
14.7%
Atmosfera has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 7 · GA 9 · avg 1.40/1.80
GF 12 · GA 4 · avg 2.40/0.80