Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Atmosfera · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 2-1 (9%), 1-2 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Atmosfera 1-1 BFA
Original prediction
Atmosfera
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 5 September 2026 at 00:02 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.08 | 42.9% | 42.7% | -0.3 pts |
| Draw | 3.56 | 25.1% | 23.3% | -1.8 pts |
| Away | 2.79 | 32.0% | 34.0% | 2.0 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.56 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-0.3 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.2–19%
- 3.1–28%
Predicted outcome
Atmosfera
Probability
42.7%
Model confidence
42.7%
Atmosfera has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
AtmosferaLWLDL
GF 7 · GA 10 · avg 1.40/2.00
BTTS 4/5O2.5 3/5
BFAWWDWD
GF 9 · GA 5 · avg 1.80/1.00
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
AtmosferaBFA
52.2Attack52.8
53.6Defence52.8
42.0Form58.3
49.3Power55.6
1.56xG1.39