Atlético Madrid IIvs
Zaragoza
COMPLETEDSpain · Primera División RFEF - Group 2 · 10/11/2026, 7:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Zaragoza · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 1-2 (9%), 0-1 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Atlético Madrid II 4-4 Zaragoza
Original prediction
Zaragoza
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 12 September 2026 at 06:24 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.80 | 32.4% | 32.4% | 0.0 pts |
| Draw | 3.37 | 26.9% | 28.2% | 1.2 pts |
| Away | 2.23 | 40.7% | 39.4% | -1.3 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.37 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-1.3 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.1–29%
- 3.0–19%
Predicted outcome
Zaragoza
Probability
39.4%
Model confidence
39.4%
Zaragoza has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 9 · GA 6 · avg 1.80/1.20
GF 12 · GA 4 · avg 2.40/0.80