Atlético Madrid IIvs
Villarreal II
COMPLETEDSpain · Primera División RFEF - Group 2 · 9/25/2026, 5:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Draw · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: Atlético Madrid II 0-0 Villarreal II, with an exact score probability of 17%.
Prediction record
Final result
Atlético Madrid II 1-3 Villarreal II
Original prediction
Draw
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 6 September 2026 at 04:55 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.35 | 38.6% | 34.5% | -4.0 pts |
| Draw | 3.35 | 27.1% | 30.3% | 3.2 pts |
| Away | 2.64 | 34.4% | 35.2% | 0.8 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
3.2 pts
Projected Score
Atlético Madrid II 0–0 Villarreal II
Exact score probability: 17%
Predicted outcome
Draw
Probability
30.3%
Model confidence
35.2%
Draw has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 9 · GA 4 · avg 1.80/0.80
GF 9 · GA 6 · avg 1.80/1.20