Atlético Madrid IIvs
Real Murcia
COMPLETEDSpain · Primera División RFEF - Group 2 · 9/13/2026, 6:30:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Atlético Madrid II · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (15%), 0-0 (12%), 1-0 (12%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Atlético Madrid II 4-0 Real Murcia
Original prediction
Atlético Madrid II
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 30 August 2026 at 00:07 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.27 | 39.9% | 37.8% | -2.1 pts |
| Draw | 3.11 | 29.1% | 29.6% | 0.5 pts |
| Away | 2.92 | 31.0% | 32.7% | 1.7 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.27 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-2.1 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–115%
- 2.0–012%
- 3.1–012%
Predicted outcome
Atlético Madrid II
Probability
37.8%
Model confidence
37.8%
Atlético Madrid II has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 8 · GA 7 · avg 1.60/1.40
GF 13 · GA 4 · avg 2.60/0.80