Atlético Madrid IIvs
Real Jaén
COMPLETEDSpain · Primera División RFEF - Group 2 · 10/25/2026, 11:00:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Atlético Madrid II · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 1-2 (9%), 2-1 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Atlético Madrid II 1-1 Real Jaén
Original prediction
Atlético Madrid II
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 7 October 2026 at 08:55 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.77 | 51.4% | 38.1% | -13.3 pts |
| Draw | 3.66 | 24.9% | 27.3% | 2.4 pts |
| Away | 3.85 | 23.7% | 34.6% | 10.9 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.66 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-13.2 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.1–29%
- 3.2–18%
Predicted outcome
Atlético Madrid II
Probability
38.1%
Model confidence
38.1%
Atlético Madrid II has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 8 · GA 12 · avg 1.60/2.40
GF 6 · GA 6 · avg 1.20/1.20