Atlético CPvs
Lagoa
COMPLETEDPortugal · Taça de Portugal · 9/19/2026, 2:30:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Atlético CP · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 2-1 (9%), 1-2 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Atlético CP 4-1 Lagoa
Original prediction
Atlético CP
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 3 September 2026 at 20:41 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.20-1.40| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.33 | 67.1% | 44.7% | -22.4 pts |
| Draw | 4.00 | 22.4% | 26.3% | 3.9 pts |
| Away | 8.55 | 10.5% | 29.0% | 18.5 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.34 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-22.4 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.2–19%
- 3.1–28%
Predicted outcome
Atlético CP
Probability
44.7%
Model confidence
44.7%
Atlético CP has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 11 · GA 3 · avg 2.20/0.60
GF 4 · GA 5 · avg 0.80/1.00