Atlético Cholomavs
Estrella Roja
COMPLETEDHonduras · Liga Nacional · 9/19/2026, 1:30:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Estrella Roja · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 0-1 (9%), 0-0 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Atlético Choloma 2-0 Estrella Roja
Original prediction
Estrella Roja
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 5 September 2026 at 00:00 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.45 | 36.5% | 34.9% | -1.6 pts |
| Draw | 3.25 | 27.6% | 26.4% | -1.1 pts |
| Away | 2.49 | 35.9% | 38.7% | 2.7 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
2.8 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.0–19%
- 3.0–09%
Predicted outcome
Estrella Roja
Probability
38.7%
Model confidence
38.7%
Estrella Roja has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 3 · GA 4 · avg 0.60/0.80
GF 11 · GA 13 · avg 2.20/2.60