Atlético Balearesvs
Ucam Murcia
COMPLETEDSpain · Segunda División RFEF - Group 3 · 9/20/2026, 9:30:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Atlético Baleares · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-0 (14%), 1-1 (13%), 2-0 (12%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Atlético Baleares 1-4 Ucam Murcia
Original prediction
Atlético Baleares
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 6 September 2026 at 00:05 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.13 | 42.5% | 44.7% | 2.2 pts |
| Draw | 3.02 | 30.0% | 28.8% | -1.2 pts |
| Away | 3.29 | 27.5% | 26.5% | -1.0 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
2.2 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–014%
- 2.1–113%
- 3.2–012%
Predicted outcome
Atlético Baleares
Probability
44.7%
Model confidence
44.7%
Atlético Baleares has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 10 · GA 4 · avg 2.00/0.80
GF 4 · GA 9 · avg 0.80/1.80