Atlético Balearesvs
Poblense
COMPLETEDSpain · Segunda División RFEF - Group 3 · 10/4/2026, 10:00:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Atlético Baleares · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (15%), 0-0 (12%), 1-0 (11%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Atlético Baleares 2-1 Poblense
Original prediction
Atlético Baleares
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 10 September 2026 at 17:26 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.70 | 53.9% | 41.1% | -12.8 pts |
| Draw | 3.36 | 27.2% | 29.1% | 2.0 pts |
| Away | 4.83 | 18.9% | 29.8% | 10.9 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.70 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-12.8 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–115%
- 2.0–012%
- 3.1–011%
Predicted outcome
Atlético Baleares
Probability
41.1%
Model confidence
41.1%
Atlético Baleares has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 7 · GA 8 · avg 1.40/1.60
GF 3 · GA 5 · avg 0.60/1.00