Atlético Astorgavs
Ourense CF
COMPLETEDSpain · Segunda División RFEF - Group 1 · 10/10/2026, 2:30:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Ourense CF · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (15%), 0-0 (14%), 0-1 (13%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Atlético Astorga 4-0 Ourense CF
Original prediction
Ourense CF
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 18 September 2026 at 15:59 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 3.21 | 28.0% | 30.8% | 2.8 pts |
| Draw | 3.04 | 29.6% | 29.7% | 0.1 pts |
| Away | 2.12 | 42.4% | 39.5% | -2.9 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-2.9 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–115%
- 2.0–014%
- 3.0–113%
Predicted outcome
Ourense CF
Probability
39.5%
Model confidence
39.5%
Ourense CF has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 5 · GA 7 · avg 1.00/1.40
GF 5 · GA 3 · avg 1.00/0.60