Atlético Astorgavs
Marino de Luanco
COMPLETEDSpain · Segunda División RFEF - Group 1 · 9/19/2026, 3:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Draw · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: Atlético Astorga 0-0 Marino de Luanco, with an exact score probability of 27%.
Prediction record
Final result
Atlético Astorga 3-0 Marino de Luanco
Original prediction
Draw
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 6 September 2026 at 00:04 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.32 | 39.0% | 33.0% | -5.9 pts |
| Draw | 3.00 | 30.1% | 33.7% | 3.6 pts |
| Away | 2.92 | 31.0% | 33.3% | 2.4 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
3.6 pts
Projected Score
Atlético Astorga 0–0 Marino de Luanco
Exact score probability: 27%
Predicted outcome
Draw
Probability
33.7%
Model confidence
33.7%
Draw has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 4 · GA 6 · avg 0.80/1.20
GF 9 · GA 7 · avg 1.80/1.40