Atlético Astorgavs
Gernika
COMPLETEDSpain · Segunda División RFEF - Group 1 · 10/24/2026, 2:30:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Gernika · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (12%), 1-2 (10%), 0-2 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Atlético Astorga 1-1 Gernika
Original prediction
Gernika
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 7 October 2026 at 19:46 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.80 | 32.1% | 31.7% | -0.4 pts |
| Draw | 3.15 | 28.6% | 28.6% | 0.1 pts |
| Away | 2.28 | 39.4% | 39.7% | 0.3 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.15 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
0.3 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–112%
- 2.1–210%
- 3.0–27%
Predicted outcome
Gernika
Probability
39.7%
Model confidence
39.7%
Gernika has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 8 · GA 7 · avg 1.60/1.40
GF 8 · GA 6 · avg 1.60/1.20