Atlético Astorgavs
Amorebieta
COMPLETEDSpain · Segunda División RFEF - Group 1 · 10/3/2026, 3:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Atlético Astorga · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (11%), 2-1 (10%), 2-0 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Atlético Astorga 0-1 Amorebieta
Original prediction
Atlético Astorga
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 10 September 2026 at 17:25 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.67 | 33.5% | 42.6% | 9.1 pts |
| Draw | 2.95 | 30.4% | 27.6% | -2.8 pts |
| Away | 2.48 | 36.1% | 29.8% | -6.3 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
9.1 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–111%
- 2.2–110%
- 3.2–08%
Predicted outcome
Atlético Astorga
Probability
42.6%
Model confidence
42.6%
Atlético Astorga has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 5 · GA 6 · avg 1.00/1.20
GF 4 · GA 5 · avg 0.80/1.00