Atletico San Luisvs
Necaxa
COMPLETEDMexico · Liga MX · 9/19/2026, 11:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Necaxa · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 0-1 (9%), 0-0 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Atletico San Luis 3-1 Necaxa
Original prediction
Necaxa
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 5 September 2026 at 00:12 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.15 | 43.3% | 36.8% | -6.4 pts |
| Draw | 3.51 | 26.5% | 25.8% | -0.7 pts |
| Away | 3.08 | 30.2% | 37.4% | 7.1 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
7.1 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.0–19%
- 3.0–09%
Predicted outcome
Necaxa
Probability
37.4%
Model confidence
37.4%
Necaxa has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
Atletico San LuisLLWDL
GF 4 · GA 10 · avg 0.80/2.00
BTTS 2/5O2.5 3/5
NecaxaLDLDL
GF 4 · GA 8 · avg 0.80/1.60
BTTS 4/5O2.5 2/5
Atletico San LuisNecaxa
33.3Attack37.5
37.5Defence45.8
25.0Form33.3
34.5Power41.9
1.22xG1.33