Atletico San Luisvs
Guadalajara Chivas
COMPLETEDMexico · Liga MX · 9/5/2026, 11:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Guadalajara Chivas · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 0-1 (10%), 1-2 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Atletico San Luis 0-3 Guadalajara Chivas
Original prediction
Guadalajara Chivas
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 27 August 2026 at 00:23 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 4.09 | 22.8% | 27.5% | 4.7 pts |
| Draw | 3.72 | 25.0% | 25.7% | 0.7 pts |
| Away | 1.78 | 52.2% | 46.8% | -5.4 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.78 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-5.5 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.0–110%
- 3.1–29%
Predicted outcome
Guadalajara Chivas
Probability
46.8%
Model confidence
46.8%
Guadalajara Chivas has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 7 · GA 11 · avg 1.40/2.20
GF 9 · GA 5 · avg 1.80/1.00