Atletico Paranaensevs
Gremio
COMPLETEDBrazil · Serie A · 5/2/2026, 11:30:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Atletico Paranaense · BTTS No · Under 2.5 · 1-0
Atletico Paranaense are 2W-1D-2L in their last 5 (WDLWL), averaging 1.20 scored and 0.80 conceded, while Gremio are 3W-1D-1L in their last 5 (DWWLW), averaging 0.80 scored and 0.40 conceded. Both teams scored in 2 of those 10 games and 2 passed 2.5 goals, and Atletico Paranaense hold a 12.7-point power-rating edge (60.0 v 47.3). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-0 the most likely exact scoreline at 49.7% in the Serie A, while Atletico Paranaense holds the strongest overall chance at 50% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 33% BTTS chance and 29% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Atletico Paranaense
Probability
49.7%
Model confidence
49.7%
Atletico Paranaense has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 6 · GA 4 · avg 1.20/0.80
GF 4 · GA 2 · avg 0.80/0.40