GGOALVIO

World · CONMEBOL Sudamericana · 7/26/2024, 12:30:00 AM

Unified score-distribution model

Prediction markets

Atletico Paranaense · BTTS No · Over 2.5 · 2-0

Highconfidence

Atletico Paranaense are 2W-1D-2L in their last 5 (LDWLW), averaging 1.40 scored and 1.20 conceded, while Cerro Porteno are 1W-3D-1L in their last 5 (DWDLD), averaging 1.20 scored and 1.00 conceded. Both teams scored in 7 of those 10 games and 4 passed 2.5 goals, and Atletico Paranaense hold a 31.4-point power-rating edge (67.9 v 36.5). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 2-0 the most likely exact scoreline at 70.5% in the CONMEBOL Sudamericana, while Atletico Paranaense holds the strongest overall chance at 70% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 46% BTTS chance and 57% for over 2.5 goals.

Predicted outcome

Atletico Paranaense

Probability

70.5%

Model confidence

70.5%

Atletico Paranaense has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.

Last 5 games

Atletico ParanaenseLDWLW

GF 7 · GA 6 · avg 1.40/1.20

BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
Cerro PortenoDWDLD

GF 6 · GA 5 · avg 1.20/1.00

BTTS 4/5O2.5 1/5
Atletico ParanaenseCerro Porteno
72.2Attack33.3
66.7Defence50.0
69.4Form16.7
67.9Power36.5
2.33xG0.69
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