Copa ColombiaCopa Colombia
Tuesday, 21 July 2026Last updated 10:15
Atletico Nacional

Atletico Nacional

Home
W
20
Full time
Tigres FC

Tigres FC

Away
L
Estadio Atanasio Girardot
GoalVio prediction
63% confidence
Atletico Nacional(63%)
Most likely exact score1-0
Win probability
Atletico Nacional
63%
Draw
22%
Tigres FC
16%
Predicted winner is based on the highest win probability.
Intelligence snapshot
Attack
Atletico Nacional
100
Tigres FC
34
Defence
Atletico Nacional
66
Tigres FC
27
Momentum
Atletico Nacional
100
Tigres FC
0
Danger (xG)
Atletico Nacional
6.30
Tigres FC
0.90
Both teams to score
No
Over 2.5 goals
No
xG for (Atletico Nacional)
6.30
avg per match
xG for (Tigres FC)
0.90
avg per match
xG against (Atletico Nacional)
0.90
avg per match
xG against (Tigres FC)
1.80
avg per match

Momentum trend

last 5 matches
Atletico NacionalAtletico Nacional
W
Tigres FCTigres FC
L

Probability breakdown

63% confidence
Atletico Nacional63%
Draw22%
Tigres FC16%

Atletico Nacional leads with 63% — the model's highest-probability outcome for this fixture.

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Analysis

Match insights

Atletico Nacional head into this in Copa Colombia fixture at Estadio Atanasio Girardot in mixed form (W), while Tigres FC arrive in mixed form (L). Atletico Nacional have a 100% win rate across their last 1 matches, compared to 0% for Tigres FC over 1 games.

Tactically, this looks like a one-sided contest. Atletico Nacional's elite attack (100/100) faces a vulnerable Tigres FC defence (27/100), while Tigres FC's attack is up against a solid Atletico Nacional backline. The model sees a clear mismatch in Atletico Nacional's favour.

Atletico Nacional have won all 1 of their recent home fixtures, averaging 7.0 goals scored and 1.0 conceded per game at home. Tigres FC have limited away data in the engine at this stage.

There is no head-to-head data between Atletico Nacional and Tigres FC in the engine.

The GoalVio engine projects Atletico Nacional to win with 63% confidence. and a most likely scoreline of 1-0. Win probabilities: Atletico Nacional 6262%, Draw 2165%, Tigres FC 1573%. BTTS: No, Over 2.5: No.

Recent form

Atletico Nacional

Atletico Nacional

W
vs Internacional de Bogota
13 May 2026
71
Tigres FC

Tigres FC

L
vs Envigado
14 May 2026
12

Frequently asked questions

Who will win Atletico Nacional vs Tigres FC?

GoalVio's model predicts Atletico Nacional to win with 63% confidence.

What is the predicted score for Atletico Nacional vs Tigres FC?

The most likely scoreline according to GoalVio's Skellam-DC model is 1-0.

Will both teams score in Atletico Nacional vs Tigres FC?

GoalVio's model predicts BTTS: No — at least one team is expected to keep a clean sheet.

Will there be over 2.5 goals in Atletico Nacional vs Tigres FC?

GoalVio's model predicts Over 2.5 Goals: No — fewer than 3 goals are expected.

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About this prediction
GoalVio Prediction Engine v5 — updated dailyPowered by Poisson, xG and momentum modelsAccuracy last 30 days: 54%Last model update:
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Responsible gambling: Predictions are generated by a statistical model for informational purposes only. Past accuracy does not guarantee future results. Learn more