Atletico Nacionalvs
Independiente Medellin
COMPLETEDColombia · Copa Colombia · 10/15/2026, 1:30:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Atletico Nacional · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 1-0 (11%), 0-0 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Atletico Nacional 3-2 Independiente Medellin
Original prediction
Atletico Nacional
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 8 October 2026 at 12:10 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.72 | 53.1% | 43.8% | -9.3 pts |
| Draw | 3.55 | 25.7% | 27.5% | 1.8 pts |
| Away | 4.31 | 21.2% | 28.7% | 7.5 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.72 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-9.3 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.1–011%
- 3.0–010%
Predicted outcome
Atletico Nacional
Probability
43.8%
Model confidence
43.8%
Atletico Nacional has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 5 · GA 5 · avg 1.00/1.00
GF 6 · GA 7 · avg 1.20/1.40