Atletico-MGvs
Santos
COMPLETEDWorld · CONMEBOL Sudamericana · 9/16/2026, 10:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Santos · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: Atletico-MG 0-1 Santos, with an exact score probability of 15%.
Prediction record
Final result
Atletico-MG 4-2 Santos
Original prediction
Santos
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 1 September 2026 at 15:55 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 3.50+| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.81 | 52.2% | 30.6% | -21.6 pts |
| Draw | 3.48 | 27.1% | 27.0% | -0.1 pts |
| Away | 4.56 | 20.7% | 42.4% | 21.7 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
21.7 pts
Projected Score
Atletico-MG 0–1 Santos
Exact score probability: 15%
Predicted outcome
Santos
Probability
42.4%
Model confidence
42.4%
Santos has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
Atletico-MGWLLWW
GF 7 · GA 7 · avg 1.40/1.40
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
SantosWWWDW
GF 8 · GA 3 · avg 1.60/0.60
BTTS 2/5O2.5 2/5
Atletico-MGSantos
40.7Attack60.6
63.0Defence69.7
51.9Form60.6
54.3Power64.2
0.78xG1.29