GGOALVIO

Brazil · Serie A · 4/5/2026, 8:30:00 PM

Unified score-distribution model

Prediction markets

Atletico Paranaense · BTTS No · Under 2.5 · 0-0

Highconfidence

Atletico-MG are 3W-0D-2L in their last 5 (WLWLW), averaging 1.20 scored and 0.60 conceded, while Atletico Paranaense are 3W-0D-2L in their last 5 (LWWWL), averaging 2.00 scored and 1.60 conceded. Both teams scored in 3 of those 10 games and 5 passed 2.5 goals, and Atletico Paranaense hold a 9.9-point power-rating edge (50.1 v 60.0). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 0-0 the most likely exact scoreline at 16.9% in the Serie A, while Atletico Paranaense holds the strongest overall chance at 41% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 37% BTTS chance and 28% for over 2.5 goals.

Predicted outcome

Atletico Paranaense

Probability

41.2%

Model confidence

16.9%

Atletico Paranaense has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.

Last 5 games

Atletico-MGWLWLW

GF 6 · GA 3 · avg 1.20/0.60

BTTS 0/5O2.5 1/5
Atletico ParanaenseLWWWL

GF 10 · GA 8 · avg 2.00/1.60

BTTS 3/5O2.5 4/5
Atletico-MGAtletico Paranaense
42.9Attack44.9
57.1Defence71.0
46.0Form59.4
50.1Power60.0
0.77xG1.08
View match centre →