Atletico Madridvs
Real Madrid
COMPLETEDSpain · La Liga · 9/20/2026, 2:15:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Real Madrid · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (12%), 2-1 (9%), 1-2 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Atletico Madrid 2-1 Real Madrid
Original prediction
Real Madrid
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 6 September 2026 at 00:04 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 3.39 | 28.1% | 37.3% | 9.1 pts |
| Draw | 3.71 | 25.7% | 24.7% | -1.0 pts |
| Away | 2.07 | 46.1% | 38.0% | -8.1 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-8.1 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–112%
- 2.2–19%
- 3.1–28%
Predicted outcome
Real Madrid
Probability
38.0%
Model confidence
38.0%
Real Madrid has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 11 · GA 6 · avg 2.20/1.20
GF 13 · GA 5 · avg 2.60/1.00