Atletico Madridvs
Manchester United
COMPLETEDWorld · UEFA Champions League · 10/13/2026, 7:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Manchester United · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (12%), 1-2 (10%), 0-2 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Atletico Madrid 2-0 Manchester United
Original prediction
Manchester United
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 28 August 2026 at 18:17 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 3.50+| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.90 | 50.5% | 35.4% | -15.1 pts |
| Draw | 3.77 | 25.4% | 26.6% | 1.2 pts |
| Away | 3.97 | 24.1% | 38.0% | 13.9 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
13.9 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–112%
- 2.1–210%
- 3.0–27%
Predicted outcome
Manchester United
Probability
38.0%
Model confidence
38.0%
Manchester United has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 12 · GA 4 · avg 2.40/0.80
GF 8 · GA 6 · avg 1.60/1.20