Atletico Madridvs
Deportivo La Coruna
COMPLETEDSpain · La Liga · 10/24/2026, 7:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Atletico Madrid · BTTS No · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 2-0 (13%), 1-0 (11%), 1-1 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Atletico Madrid 1-0 Deportivo La Coruna
Original prediction
Atletico Madrid
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 25 September 2026 at 00:49 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.20-1.40| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.28 | 74.3% | 62.8% | -11.5 pts |
| Draw | 5.81 | 16.4% | 21.0% | 4.6 pts |
| Away | 10.24 | 9.3% | 16.2% | 6.9 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.28 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-11.5 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.2–013%
- 2.1–011%
- 3.1–110%
Predicted outcome
Atletico Madrid
Probability
62.8%
Model confidence
62.8%
Atletico Madrid has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 8 · GA 3 · avg 1.60/0.60
GF 7 · GA 10 · avg 1.40/2.00