Atletico Independientevs
CD Motagua
COMPLETEDHonduras · Liga Nacional · 9/5/2026, 11:15:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
CD Motagua · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 0-1 (10%), 1-2 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Atletico Independiente 0-0 CD Motagua
Original prediction
CD Motagua
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 1 September 2026 at 00:00 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 3.74 | 24.1% | 29.8% | 5.6 pts |
| Draw | 3.49 | 25.9% | 26.6% | 0.7 pts |
| Away | 1.81 | 50.0% | 43.7% | -6.3 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.49 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-6.3 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.0–110%
- 3.1–29%
Predicted outcome
CD Motagua
Probability
43.7%
Model confidence
43.7%
CD Motagua has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 5 · GA 6 · avg 1.00/1.20
GF 9 · GA 7 · avg 1.80/1.40