Atletico Independientevs
CD Marathon
COMPLETEDHonduras · Liga Nacional · 10/25/2026, 12:30:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
CD Marathon · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: Atletico Independiente 0-1 CD Marathon, with an exact score probability of 20%.
Prediction record
Final result
Atletico Independiente 2-2 CD Marathon
Original prediction
CD Marathon
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 2 October 2026 at 01:55 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 4.41 | 20.6% | 11.1% | -9.4 pts |
| Draw | 3.49 | 26.0% | 21.7% | -4.3 pts |
| Away | 1.70 | 53.5% | 67.2% | 13.7 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.49 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
13.7 pts
Projected Score
Atletico Independiente 0–1 CD Marathon
Exact score probability: 20%
Predicted outcome
CD Marathon
Probability
67.2%
Model confidence
67.2%
CD Marathon has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 3 · GA 10 · avg 0.60/2.00
GF 7 · GA 8 · avg 1.40/1.60