Atletico DE Rafaelavs
Tristan Suarez
COMPLETEDArgentina · Primera Nacional · 8/29/2026, 7:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Draw · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: Atletico DE Rafaela 0-0 Tristan Suarez, with an exact score probability of 44%.
Prediction record
Final result
Atletico DE Rafaela 2-1 Tristan Suarez
Original prediction
Draw
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 26 August 2026 at 01:01 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.52 | 36.4% | 23.7% | -12.7 pts |
| Draw | 2.62 | 34.9% | 41.7% | 6.7 pts |
| Away | 3.20 | 28.6% | 34.6% | 6.0 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
6.7 pts
Projected Score
Atletico DE Rafaela 0–0 Tristan Suarez
Exact score probability: 44%
Predicted outcome
Draw
Probability
41.7%
Model confidence
41.7%
Draw has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 3 · GA 1 · avg 0.60/0.20
GF 11 · GA 2 · avg 2.20/0.40