Atletico DE Rafaelavs
San Martin Tucuman
COMPLETEDArgentina · Primera Nacional · 9/19/2026, 7:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Draw · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: Atletico DE Rafaela 0-0 San Martin Tucuman, with an exact score probability of 38%.
Prediction record
Final result
Atletico DE Rafaela 4-2 San Martin Tucuman
Original prediction
Draw
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 4 September 2026 at 06:42 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.56 | 35.9% | 29.4% | -6.5 pts |
| Draw | 2.74 | 33.5% | 39.0% | 5.5 pts |
| Away | 3.00 | 30.6% | 31.6% | 1.0 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
5.5 pts
Projected Score
Atletico DE Rafaela 0–0 San Martin Tucuman
Exact score probability: 38%
Predicted outcome
Draw
Probability
39.0%
Model confidence
39.0%
Draw has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 3 · GA 5 · avg 0.60/1.00
GF 8 · GA 6 · avg 1.60/1.20