Atletico DE Rafaelavs
Quilmes
COMPLETEDArgentina · Primera Nacional · 10/17/2026, 12:00:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Draw · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: Atletico DE Rafaela 0-0 Quilmes, with an exact score probability of 35%.
Prediction record
Final result
Atletico DE Rafaela 1-0 Quilmes
Original prediction
Draw
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 20 September 2026 at 06:35 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.39 | 38.3% | 30.3% | -8.0 pts |
| Draw | 2.86 | 31.9% | 37.4% | 5.5 pts |
| Away | 3.07 | 29.8% | 32.3% | 2.5 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
5.5 pts
Projected Score
Atletico DE Rafaela 0–0 Quilmes
Exact score probability: 35%
Predicted outcome
Draw
Probability
37.4%
Model confidence
37.4%
Draw has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
Atletico DE RafaelaLLLWL
GF 7 · GA 12 · avg 1.40/2.40
BTTS 3/5O2.5 4/5
QuilmesLDWLW
GF 3 · GA 4 · avg 0.60/0.80
BTTS 0/5O2.5 1/5
Atletico DE RafaelaQuilmes
27.3Attack30.3
65.7Defence71.7
42.4Form39.4
47.4Power48.4
0.50xG0.58