Atletico DE Rafaelavs
Atlanta
COMPLETEDArgentina · Primera Nacional · 10/4/2026, 8:30:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Draw · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: Atletico DE Rafaela 0-0 Atlanta, with an exact score probability of 33%.
Prediction record
Final result
Atletico DE Rafaela 2-3 Atlanta
Original prediction
Draw
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 4 September 2026 at 06:43 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.36 | 38.9% | 29.9% | -9.0 pts |
| Draw | 2.84 | 32.3% | 37.1% | 4.8 pts |
| Away | 3.19 | 28.8% | 33.0% | 4.2 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
4.8 pts
Projected Score
Atletico DE Rafaela 0–0 Atlanta
Exact score probability: 33%
Predicted outcome
Draw
Probability
37.1%
Model confidence
37.1%
Draw has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
Atletico DE RafaelaLWLLW
GF 7 · GA 8 · avg 1.40/1.60
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
AtlantaWDWWL
GF 4 · GA 1 · avg 0.80/0.20
BTTS 0/5O2.5 0/5
Atletico DE RafaelaAtlanta
26.9Attack37.6
71.0Defence69.9
45.2Form55.9
50.0Power56.4
0.52xG0.62