Atletico Balboavs
Águila
COMPLETEDEl-Salvador · Primera Division · 10/18/2026, 9:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Águila · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 0-1 (13%), 1-1 (13%), 0-2 (12%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Atletico Balboa 2-2 Águila
Original prediction
Águila
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 3 October 2026 at 12:28 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 3.56 | 25.2% | 20.2% | -5.0 pts |
| Draw | 3.22 | 27.9% | 24.1% | -3.8 pts |
| Away | 1.92 | 46.8% | 55.7% | 8.8 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.22 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
8.8 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.0–113%
- 2.1–113%
- 3.0–212%
Predicted outcome
Águila
Probability
55.7%
Model confidence
55.7%
Águila has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 4 · GA 10 · avg 0.80/2.00
GF 10 · GA 4 · avg 2.00/0.80