Atletico Atlasvs
El Porvenir
COMPLETEDArgentina · Primera C · 10/10/2026, 8:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Draw · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: Atletico Atlas 0-0 El Porvenir, with an exact score probability of 38%.
Prediction record
Final result
Atletico Atlas 1-2 El Porvenir
Original prediction
Draw
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 26 September 2026 at 00:04 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.43 | 36.7% | 34.3% | -2.4 pts |
| Draw | 2.90 | 30.8% | 37.6% | 6.9 pts |
| Away | 2.74 | 32.6% | 28.1% | -4.4 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
6.9 pts
Projected Score
Atletico Atlas 0–0 El Porvenir
Exact score probability: 38%
Predicted outcome
Draw
Probability
37.6%
Model confidence
37.6%
Draw has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
Atletico AtlasLDLLD
GF 1 · GA 5 · avg 0.20/1.00
BTTS 1/5O2.5 0/5
El PorvenirDLLWL
GF 4 · GA 8 · avg 0.80/1.60
BTTS 2/5O2.5 1/5
Atletico AtlasEl Porvenir
25.6Attack27.8
71.1Defence66.7
41.1Form40.0
48.3Power47.5
0.55xG0.44