Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Atlas W · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (11%), 2-1 (10%), 2-0 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Atlas W 2-1 Puebla W
Original prediction
Atlas W
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 24 September 2026 at 19:18 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.20-1.40| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.36 | 66.4% | 58.2% | -8.2 pts |
| Draw | 4.67 | 19.3% | 19.9% | 0.5 pts |
| Away | 6.33 | 14.2% | 21.9% | 7.7 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.36 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-8.2 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–111%
- 2.2–110%
- 3.2–08%
Predicted outcome
Atlas W
Probability
58.2%
Model confidence
58.2%
Atlas W has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
Atlas WDLWDW
GF 5 · GA 4 · avg 1.00/0.80
BTTS 2/5O2.5 1/5
Puebla WDLLLL
GF 4 · GA 12 · avg 0.80/2.40
BTTS 3/5O2.5 2/5
Atlas WPuebla W
33.3Attack42.4
42.4Defence0.0
39.4Form12.1
40.6Power20.2
2.03xG1.29