Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
León W · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (11%), 1-2 (10%), 0-2 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Atlas W 1-1 León W
Original prediction
León W
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 8 September 2026 at 09:51 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 3.43 | 26.2% | 24.3% | -2.0 pts |
| Draw | 3.57 | 25.2% | 21.7% | -3.6 pts |
| Away | 1.85 | 48.5% | 54.1% | 5.5 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.57 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
5.5 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–111%
- 2.1–210%
- 3.0–28%
Predicted outcome
León W
Probability
54.1%
Model confidence
54.1%
León W has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
Atlas WLWDWL
GF 4 · GA 7 · avg 0.80/1.40
BTTS 1/5O2.5 2/5
León WWLLWW
GF 8 · GA 9 · avg 1.60/1.80
BTTS 1/5O2.5 2/5
Atlas WLeón W
33.3Attack56.7
40.0Defence43.3
40.0Form50.0
40.1Power50.3
1.21xG1.96