Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Atlas · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 1-0 (10%), 2-1 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Atlas 4-3 Puebla
Original prediction
Atlas
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 26 September 2026 at 16:10 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.63 | 57.3% | 44.3% | -13.0 pts |
| Draw | 3.89 | 24.0% | 28.1% | 4.1 pts |
| Away | 5.01 | 18.7% | 27.6% | 8.9 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.63 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-13.0 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.1–010%
- 3.2–19%
Predicted outcome
Atlas
Probability
44.3%
Model confidence
44.3%
Atlas has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
AtlasLWDWD
GF 9 · GA 9 · avg 1.80/1.80
BTTS 4/5O2.5 2/5
PueblaLDDLD
GF 3 · GA 7 · avg 0.60/1.40
BTTS 3/5O2.5 1/5
AtlasPuebla
53.8Attack33.3
41.0Defence56.4
53.8Form41.0
51.9Power46.4
1.55xG1.06