Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Atlas · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5 · 1-1
Atlas are 3W-1D-1L in their last 5 (DWWWL), averaging 2.20 scored and 1.60 conceded, while Monterrey are 3W-0D-2L in their last 5 (WLWLW), averaging 1.80 scored and 1.00 conceded. Both teams scored in 5 of those 10 games and 6 passed 2.5 goals, and Monterrey hold a 14.3-point power-rating edge (38.7 v 53.0). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 33.5% in the Friendlies Clubs, while Atlas holds the strongest overall chance at 33% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 52% BTTS chance and 45% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Atlas
Probability
33.5%
Model confidence
33.5%
Atlas has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 11 · GA 8 · avg 2.20/1.60
GF 9 · GA 5 · avg 1.80/1.00