Atlasvs
Guadalajara Chivas
COMPLETEDMexico · Liga MX · 10/11/2026, 1:00:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Guadalajara Chivas · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (12%), 1-2 (10%), 0-2 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Atlas 1-1 Guadalajara Chivas
Original prediction
Guadalajara Chivas
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 14 September 2026 at 16:48 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 3.43 | 27.2% | 27.6% | 0.4 pts |
| Draw | 3.45 | 27.0% | 26.7% | -0.4 pts |
| Away | 2.04 | 45.8% | 45.8% | -0.0 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.45 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-0.0 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–112%
- 2.1–210%
- 3.0–29%
Predicted outcome
Guadalajara Chivas
Probability
45.8%
Model confidence
45.8%
Guadalajara Chivas has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 8 · GA 12 · avg 1.60/2.40
GF 10 · GA 4 · avg 2.00/0.80